Modeling the Changes in the Population Age Structure with an Emphasis on Medical Services’ State (Case Study: Tabriz City)

Document Type : Independent Research Articles

Authors

1 Assistant Professor, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, Tabriz University, Tabriz, Iran

2 Associate Professor, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, Tabriz University, Tabriz, Iran

3 Ph.D. student in Geography and Urban Planning, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, Tabriz University, Tabriz, Iran

Abstract

According to the forecasts of the World Health Organization, in the future, there will be a growth in the elderly population, which requires planning and policies. The process of changing the age structure of the population will lead to the phenomenon of aging in societies. In this regard, planning for the body and structure of the city without considering the changing demographic structure in the future will definitely fail. Therefore, the aim of the present study is to investigate the changes in the age structure of the population of Tabriz city, emphasizing the health services and its forecast until 2051. This research follows a descriptive-correlational approach and is a survey in terms of the method of data collection. The population of the present study is 68821 patients who were presented by Tabriz hospitals. First, the demographic data of the two decades of 2006 to 2016 were used as the basis for population forecasting, and then for analyzing the data, the dynamic systems-based approach was used to assess the need for medical services up to 1430 with a systemic view. The results of the research showed that by 2051, a total of 4948 hospital beds and 2418 nurses should be added to bring Tabriz to a normal state compared to the current conditions of the city. Predictions show that the problem of the aging population will undoubtedly affect the health care system of Tabriz city, and to provide medical services for the elderly population in the next 30 years, medical facilities must be increased significantly, and this requires comprehensive planning.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

Bone, A. E., Gomes, B., Etkind, S. N., Verne, J., Murtagh, F. E., Evans, C. J., & Higginson, I. J. (2018). What is the impact of population ageing on the future provision of end-of-life care? Population-based projections of place of death. Palliative medicine, 32(2), 329-336.‏
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. About chronic diseases. Hyattsville; 2017. https://www.cdc.gov/chronicdisease/about/index.htm. Accessed 11 Jan 2019
Chen, Z., Yu, J., Song, Y., & Chui, D. (2010). Aging Beijing: challenges and strategies of health care for the elderly. Ageing research reviews, 9, S2-S5.‏
Cristea, M., Noja, G. G., Stefea, P., & Sala, A. L. (2020). The impact of population aging and public health support on EU labor markets. International journal of environmental research and public health, 17(4), 1439.‏
Darabi, Sadaleh, Mirzaei, & Raghofer. (2014). The effect of population aging on consumption demand in urban areas of Iran: period 1375 to 1391. Iran Demographic Association, 18(9), 120-145.
Dude, C., & Myrskyä, M. (2017). Working life expectancy at age 50 in the United States and the impact of the Great Recession. Demography, 54(6), 2101–2123.
Dudel, C., & Myrskylä, M. (2020). Cohort trends in working life expectancies at age 50 in the United States: A register-based study using social security administration data. The Journals of Gerontology: Series B, 75(7), 1504-1514.‏
Evans, R. G., McGrail, K. M., Morgan, S. G., Barer, M. L., & Hertzman, C. (2001). Apocalypse no: population aging and the future of health care systems. Canadian Journal on Aging/La Revue canadienne du vieillissement, 20(S1), 160-191.‏
Farji Sabkbar, Hassan Ali, Mahmoudi Chenari, Habib, Bagheri, Milad, & Khodadad. (2018). Spatial distribution analysis of population aging in Iran. Parliament and Strategy, 96(25), 265-296. (in Persian)
Fathi. (2020). The phenomenon of population aging in Iran. Iranian Journal of Official Statistics, 30(2), 387-413.
Hashimoto, K. I., & Tabata, K. (2010). Population aging, health care, and growth. Journal of Population Economics, 23, 571-593.‏ (in Persian)
Hassanzadeh, Mohammad, Farhang, Amirali, & Mohammadpour. (2021). The effect of population aging on economic growth (study of MENAP member countries). Journal of the Iranian Demographic Association, 16(31), 217-247. (in Persian)
https://www.amar.org.ir/
Independent Evaluation Group. (2021). World Bank support to aging countries: An independent evaluation. World Bank.‏
Kashanian, Raghofer, Mousavi, & Mirhossein. (2019). Economic consequences of population aging on Iran's economy (overlapping generations general equilibrium model). Iran Economic Research, 24(78), 31-60. (in Persian)
Knodel, J., & Teerawichitchainan, B. (2015). Population ageing and the need for research on ageing: Correcting a misconception. Population, 12(2 S 4), 6.‏
Langlois, J. (2004). Medical demography from 2003 to 2025 present and future difficulties. Bulletin de L'academie Nationale de Medecine, 188(4), 675-91.‏
Li, L., Du, T., & Hu, Y. (2020). The effect of population aging on healthcare expenditure from a healthcare demand perspective among different age groups: evidence from Beijing City in the People's Republic of China. Risk Management and Healthcare Policy, 1403-1412.‏
Lin, M. H., Chou, M. Y., Liang, C. K., Peng, L. N., & Chen, L. K. (2010). Population aging and its impacts: strategies of the health-care system in Taipei. Ageing research reviews, 9, S23-S27.‏
Loichinger, E., & Weber, D. (2016). Trends in working life expectancy in Europe. Journal of aging and health, 28(7), 1194-1213.‏
Lopreite, M., & Mauro, M. (2017). The effects of population ageing on health care expenditure: a Bayesian VAR analysis using data from Italy. Health policy, 121(6), 663-674.‏
Maqsoodpour (2015). Factors affecting the reduction of fertility rate in Iran from the point of view of economics in the period of 2015-2016. Economic magazine-monthly review of economic issues and policies, 15(5), 83-100.‎ (in Persian)
Mashayikhi, A., Azar, A, Zangounejad,. (2012). Dynamic modeling of reducing the average claim payment time in insurance companies: a system dynamics approach. Change management research paper, 64-45. (in Persian)
McGinnis, S. L., & Moore, J. (2006). The impact of the aging population on the health workforce in the United States: Summary of key findings. Cahiers de sociologie et de démographie médicales, 46(2), 193-220.‏
Mehri, N. (2021). New York State’s Counties Have Different Trends in Population Aging.
Mielczarek, B., & Zabawa, J. (2018, July). Impact of Population Ageing on Hospital Demand. In SIMULTECH (pp. 459-466).‏
Mirzaei, M., Darabi, S., & Babapour, M. (2017). Population Aging in Iran and Rising Health Care Costs. Iranian Journal of Ageing, 12(2), 156-69.‏
Mohammadi, Soraya, Yazdani Cherati, Mousavi Nesab, & Seyed Nuruddin. (2017). Identifying factors affecting the aging of the Iranian population in 2015. Journal of Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences (JMUMS), 27(155).
Nasirzadeh, Elnaz, Fallah, Timourzadeh, & Vali. (2015). Presenting a new method based on learning algorithms for data processing to adopt future research solutions in higher education. Management Future Research, 103, 1-14. (in Persian)
North, B. J., & Sinclair, D. A. (2012). The intersection between aging and cardiovascular disease. Circulation research, 110(8), 1097-1108.‏
Oksuzyan, A., Höhn, A., Krabbe Pedersen, J., Rau, R., Lindahl-Jacobsen, R., & Christensen, K. (2020). Preparing for the future: The changing demographic composition of hospital patients in Denmark between 2013 and 2050. PLoS One, 15(9), e0238912.‏
Osborn, R., Moulds, D., Squires, D., Doty, M. M., & Anderson, C. (2014). International survey of older adults finds shortcomings in access, coordination, and patient-centered care. Health Affairs, 33(12), 2247-2255.
Paul, B. K., & Rashid, H. (2017). Land use change and coastal management. Climatic hazards in coastal Bangladesh, 183-207.‏
Rechel, B., Doyle, Y., Grundy, E., & McKee, M. (2009). How can health systems respond to population ageing?.‏ https://www.euro.who.int/__data/assets/pdf_file/0004/64966/E92560.pdf
Rowland, D. T. (2012). Population aging: the transformation of societies (Vol. 3). Springer Science & Business Media.
Russell, Mehri, & Ardalan. (2007). The future of aging and health service costs: a warning for the country's health system (review article). Almand Scientific Research Journal, 2(2), 300-305.
Sayah Mofazli, Ardeshir, & Asadi. (2015). Examining the intellectual structures and key concepts in future research and providing a framework for the implementation of future research studies. Management Future Research, 26(No. 1 (Serial 102)), 15-26.
Sepidnameh, B., & Ghaisarian, E. (2022). Economic, Social and Demographic Situation of the Elderly in Ilam Province in the Last Four Decades.‏ (in Persian)
Skoog, G. R., & Ciecka, J. E. (2010). Measuring years of inactivity, years in retirement, time to retirement, and age at retirement within the Markov model. Demography, 47(3), 609-628.
Smith, S. K., Tayman, J., & Swanson, D. A. (2013). A practitioner's guide to state and local population projections. Springer Netherlands.‏
Smith, S. K., Tayman, J., & Swanson, D. A. (2013). A practitioner's guide to state and local population projections. Springer Netherlands.
 
Strunk, B. C., Ginsburg, P. B., & Banker, M. I. (2006). The Effect Of Population Aging On Future Hospital Demand: A simulation of future spending finds that aging will not be the strongest influence on inpatient hospital use. Health Affairs, 25(Suppl1), W141-W149.‏
Uddin, G. A., Alam, K., & Gow, J. (2016). Population age structure and savings rate impacts on economic growth: Evidence from Australia. Economic Analysis and Policy, 52, 23-33.‏
Veras, R. (2009). Population aging today: demands, challenges and innovations. Revista de saúde pública, 43, 548-554.‏ (in Persian)
White, M. C., Holman, D. M., Boehm,   J. E., Peipins, L. A., Grossman, M., & Henley, S. J. (2014). Age and cancer risk: a potentially modifiable relationship. American journal of preventive medicine, 46(3), S7-S15.‏
Xia, X., Jiang, Q., McDermott, J., & Han, J. D. J. (2018). Aging and Alzheimer’s disease: comparison and associations from molecular to system level. Aging cell, 17(5), e12802.‏
Ziari, Karamat Elah, Rostam Ghorani, Ebrahim, & Biranvand. (2009). Survey of demographic and residential changes in Qeshm city until the horizon of 1405. Urban and regional studies and researches (discontinued), 1(2), 37-50. (in Persian)
 
 
Urban Structure and Function Studies
Volume 10, Issue 36
September 2023
Pages 205-231

Files

History

  • Receive Date: 26 February 2023
  • Revise Date: 13 May 2023
  • Accept Date: 30 September 2023

Share

How to cite

Statistics