آینده‌نگاری و شناسایی سناریوهای بازآفرینی بافت های ناکارآمد شهری (مورد مطالعه: بافت تاریخی شهر کرمان)

نوع مقاله : مقاله استخراج از رساله و پایان نامه

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیای و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

2 دانشیار جغرافیای انسانی دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

3 استاد جغرافیای انسانی دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

4 استاد دانشگاه تهران

5 گروه جغرافیای انسانی، دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

چکیده

رشد شتابان و گسترش بی‌برنامه شهرها در دوره‌های مختلف، باعث پدید آمدن فضاهایی در شهرها شده است که از حیات اجتماعی و اقتصادی جا مانده‌اند و دچار بی‌قوارگی، نابسامانی کالبدی و افول حیات شهری هستند. یکی از عوامل اصلی پدید آمدن چنین فضاهایی که از آن‌ها به‌عنوان بافت‌های ناکارآمد یاد می‌شود، گسترش بی‌برنامه شهرها و عدم وجود برنامه‌ریزی و چشم‌انداز برای رشد و توسعه شهر در آینده بوده است. بنابراین در تحقیق حاضر، تلاش شده به کمک دانش آینده‌پژوهی و یکی از مهم‌‌ترین ابزارهای آن یعنی برنامه‌ریز بر پایه سناریو، به شناسایی پیشران‌های کلیدی بازآفرینی شهری و همچنین سناریوهای مختلف پیش روی بافت تاریخی شهر کرمان پرداخته شود. پژوهش حاضر به لحاظ هدف، کاربردی و بر اساس روش پژوهش، توصیفی- تحلیلی، از نظر ماهیت، بر اساس روش‌های جدید آینده‌پژوهی، تحلیلی و اکتشافی است. جمع‌آوری داده‌ها و اطلاعات به روش پیمایشی و تجزیه‌ و تحلیل ماتریس تأثیرات متقاطع با استفاده از نرم‌افزارهای میک‌مک (MicMac) و سناریوویزارد (Scenario Wizard) انجام شده است. بر اساس یافته‌های تحقیق از 41 شاخص موردبررسی، 9 شاخص به‌عنوان پیشران‌های کلیدی بازآفرینی بافت تاریخی شهر کرمان شناسایی شدند. حفظ اصالت طرح و اثر، تنوع عملکردی و ایجاد سرزندگی، استفاده مجدد از ابنیه و معاصرسازی، پرداخت یارانه و تسهیلات بانکی، مشارکت مردم و بخش خصوصی، نقش فرهنگ و صنایع فرهنگی، ایجاد ابزارهای حقوقی و قانونی، ایجاد مدیریت یکپارچه بافت تاریخی و الگوی جامع برنامه‌ریز و مدیریت بازآفرینی به عنوان عوامل کلیدی و پیشران‌های بازآفرینی بافت تاریخی شهر کرمان شناسایی شدند. همچنین نتایج بخش سناریونگاری تحقیق نشان‌دهنده 4 سناریو با سازگاری بالا یا محتمل برای آینده بافت تاریخی شهر کرمان است. سناریو اول کاملاً مطلوب، سناریو دوم نیمه‌مطلوب، سناریو سوم بحرانی و سناریو چهارم آینده کاملاً بحرانی را برای بازآفرینی بافت تاریخی شهر کرمان ارزیابی می‌کند. با توجه به شناختی که از پیشران‌های کلیدی و سناریوهای پیش ‌روی بازآفرینی بافت تاریخی شهر کرمان به دست آمد، می‌توان با برنامه‌ریزی آینده‌نگر و توجه به عوامل کلیدی و لایه‌های پنهان در حوزه‌های مختلف اجتماعی، اقتصادی، کالبدی، عملکردی، فرهنگی و نهادی - مدیریتی، ضمن برخورد با ابعاد مختلف ناپایداری و فرسودگی، چرخه افت و زوال را معکوس نموده و فرصتی جدید برای احیا و بازآفرینی بافت تاریخی شهری کرمان فراهم گردد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Foresight and identification of regeneration scenarios of inefficient urban textures

نویسندگان [English]

  • Asghar Heydari 1
  • Hossain Hataminejad 2
  • saeed zanganeh shahraki 3
  • ahmad pourahmad 4
  • Ali Hosseini 5
1 Doctoral student of University of Tehran
2 Associate Professor of Tehran University
3 Tehran University
4 Professor at Tehran University
5 Department of Human Geography, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

The current research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical based on the research method. In terms of nature, it is based on new future-research, analytical and exploratory methods. The collection of data and information has been done by the survey method and the analysis of the matrix of cross-effects using MicMac and Scenario Wizard software. Based on the findings of the research, out of 41 investigated indicators,9 indicators were identified as the key drivers of the reconstruction of the historical fabric of Kerman city. Maintaining the originality of the design and work, functional diversity and creating vitality, reuse of buildings and modernization, payment of subsidies and bank facilities, participation of people and the private sector, the role of culture and cultural industries, creation of legal and legal tools, creation of integrated management of historical context and model Comprehensive planning and regeneration management were identified as key factors and drivers of the regeneration of the historical fabric of Kerman. Also, the results of the scenario planning section of the research indicate 4 scenarios with high or probable compatibility for the future of the historical context of Kerman city. The first scenario is completely desirable, the second scenario is semi-desirable, the third scenario is critical, and the fourth scenario is completely critical for recreating the historical context of Kerman city. According to the knowledge obtained from the key drivers and future scenarios for the reconstruction of the historical context of Kerman city, it is possible to plan ahead and pay attention to the key factors and hidden layers in different social fields. , economic, physical, functional, cultural and institutional-management, while dealing with various dimensions of instability and deterioration, reverse the cycle of decline and decline and provide a new opportunity to revive and recreate the historical urban fabric of Kerman

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Foresight
  • Scenarios
  • Regeneration
  • Historical context
  • Kerman city

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مطالعات ساختار و کارکرد شهری
دوره 11، شماره 39
اردیبهشت 1403
صفحه 29-60

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  • تاریخ دریافت: 16 مهر 1402
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 17 آذر 1402
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 09 اسفند 1402

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