آینده‌پژوهی عوامل مؤثر بر مدیریت رشد شهری بر پایه‌ی شبکه‌های اکولوژیک(مطالعه موردی: شهر مراغه)

نوع مقاله : مقالات مستقل پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد گروه جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری ، دانشکده برنامه ریزی و علوم محیطی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران

2 دکترای گروه جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری ، دانشکده برنامه ریزی و علوم محیطی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران.

3 دانشجوی دکتری رشته جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری، دانشکده برنامه ریزی و علوم محیطی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران

چکیده

رشد شهری فرآیند پیچیده‌ای است که در مراحل و زمان‌های مختلف تحت تأثیر نیروهای خاص اجتماعی، اقتصادی، سیاسی، نظامی، مدیریتی و طبیعی است. امروزه رشد سریع شهری درحال تبدیل‌شدن به یک مشکل جدی در بسیاری از کشورهای درحال‌ توسعه و به‌عنوان یکی از مباحث مهم مربوط به تغییرات زیست‌محیطی قرن 21 در مناطق شهری مطرح‌ شده‌است. برای جلوگیری از نابودی اکوسیستم‌ها و شبکه‌های اکولوژیک شهری، اصطلاح مدیریت رشد شهری مطرح ‌شده‌است که از طریق سیاست‌ها و مقرراتی رشد و توسعه‌ی شهری را هدایت و کنترل می‌کند. پژوهش حاضر ازلحاظ هدف در زمره‌ی تحقیقات کاربردی و ازلحاظ ماهیت توصیفی-تحلیلی است. در این پژوهش جهت گردآوری اطلاعات موردنیاز از دو شیوه‌ی کتابخانه‌ای و میدانی استفاده شده‌است. جهت دستیابی به متغیرهای تحقیق به مرور پیشینه‌ی پژوهش  پرداخته شد، بعد متغیرهای به‌دست آمده از طریق مصاحبه با متخصصان، مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. درنهایت 41 متغیر در قالب 4 شاخص سیاسی- مدیریتی، اقتصادی، اجتماعی و طبیعی با بهره‌گیری از روش دلفی و پویش محیطی شناسایی شد. سرانجام در قالب پرسشنامه به شکل ماتریس 41 *41 طبق نمونه‌گیری هدفمند در اختیار 15 نفر از کارشناسان و متخصصان قرار گرفت. برای ارزیابی متغیرهای تحقیق و پایایی سؤالات از ضریب آلفای کرونباخ استفاده‌ شده که با مقدار 806/0، همواره بیش از 7/0 برآورد شده‌است. سپس با استفاده از نرم‌افزارهای میک مک و سناریوویزارد مورد تحلیل قرار گرفت، که 13 گویه  به‌عنوان پیشران‌های اصلی و کلیدی مؤثر مدیریت بر رشد شهری شهر مراغه شناسایی شدند که عبارتند از : طرح مسکن مهر، مالکیت زمین، تغییر کاربری زمین، ادغام روستاهای پیرامون در شهر، خانه‌های دوم در باغات و مزارع، گسترش زیرساخت‌ها و شبکه‌های ارتباطی، انتقال مراکز اداری و توسعه خدمات محور متصل به شهر، طرح‌های آماده‌سازی و ایجاد شهرک‌سازی متصل و منفصل، طرح‌های جامع شهری (منطقه بندی)، تعاونی مسکن ادارات و سازمان‌ها، عدم نظارت بر ساخت‌و‌ساز، افزایش قیمت مسکن و زمین، سیاست‌های دولت در بازار زمین و مسکن. درنهایت این 13 گویه در 39 وضعیت احتمالی با استفاده از نرم‌افزار سنایروویزارد مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. درنهایت  23 سناریو باورکردنی در زمینه‌ی وضعیت مدیریت رشد شهری مراغه ارائه گردید که دو سناریو 3 و 12 بهترین سناریو جهت مدیریت رشد شهر مراغه بر پایه‌ی  شبکه‌های اکولوژیک است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Future Study of Effective Factors on Urban Growth Management Based on Ecological Networks: A Case Study on Maragheh City

نویسندگان [English]

  • Rasoul Ghorbani 1
  • pooran karbasi 2
  • mahdieh tahooni 3
1 Professor, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran
2 Ph.D., Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran.
3 Ph.D. Student of Geography and Urban Planning, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran
چکیده [English]

The present applied research is descriptive-analytical in nature and uses library and field methods to collect the required data. To achieve the research variables, the research background was reviewed. The obtained variables were then examined through interviews with experts. Finally, 41 variables were identified in the form of 4 political-managerial, economic, social and natural indicators using Delphi method and environmental scanning. Finally, a questionnaires in the form of a 41 * 41 matrix were distributed among 15 experts and specialists selected through to purposive sampling. Following that, using Mick Mac and Scenario Wizard Software, 13 items were identified as the main and key drivers of effective management on urban growth in Maragheh. These 13 items were examined in 39 possible situations using Scenario Wizard Software. Finally, 23 credible scenarios were presented in the field of urban growth management in Maragheh. Two scenarios, 3 and 12, were chosen to be the best ones for managing the growth of Maragheh based on ecological networks.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Urban growth management
  • Ecological networks
  • Future research
  • Maragheh
 
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